卡達外交危機的前因後果

2017/06/16
交通大學社會與文化研究所博士候選人
譯者: 
苦勞網記者

【譯按】6月初,卡達爆發外交危機,沙烏地阿拉伯、阿拉伯聯合大公國、巴林與埃及等海灣國家接連宣布與卡達斷交,各國除了驅逐卡達大使,也對卡達發布貿易與旅遊禁令。沙烏地阿拉伯陣營批評卡達和國營半島電視台與伊朗之間的合作關係,並指控卡達資助恐怖組織,然而卡達否認這些指控,並自陳向來與美方合作反恐以及打擊伊斯蘭國。

沙烏地阿拉伯等國以「反恐之名」與卡達斷交,並透過各自的媒體發言,雙方各說各話,本篇文章作者整理了雙方陣營之間長期以來的矛盾與緊張關係,也指出了美國新上任的川普政府在這當中扮演的關鍵角色,有助於讀者進一步了解卡達的外交危機背後,中東區域各陣營之間的張力與角力。

本文翻譯成中文後,為使文章閱讀流暢,我在不影響原意下適度潤飾譯文,並加上主、副標題。

與卡達斷交的國家示意圖。(圖片來源:維基百科;後加上中文)

卡達的外交危機並非最近才有,而是多年累積下來的結果。

沙烏地阿拉伯與卡達之間、長期處於不穩定狀態的關係,可以回溯到1992年,一次造成兩位卡達士兵以及一位沙烏地阿拉伯軍官死亡的邊界衝突事件;1994年,葉門內戰中,卡達又因支持要求獨立的南葉門而與沙烏地阿拉伯站在對立面;1995年,卡達反對將沙烏地阿拉伯任命為海灣合作委員會(GCC)秘書長的協定,卡達因此被迫離開會議室,更放話威脅要抵制委員會的所有會議。

卡達與鄰近的巴林,則是長期受侯瓦爾群島的衝突所影響,使得這兩個國家亦陷入緊繃的局面——1986年,戰爭曾一觸即發,後因沙烏地阿拉伯的干涉而被避免,一直到1997年,卡達與巴林兩國才建立了外交關係。

埃及方面,則在1994到1996年之間與沙烏地阿拉伯進行情報合作,透過集團結盟尋求雙重政變的可能性:不只針對卡達新的伊斯蘭領袖Hamad(現任伊斯蘭領袖的父親)也針對統治家族「Al Thani」。但在政變的最後的一刻,遭軍官洩漏。卡達立即向美國求援,並與華盛頓簽署一份安全條約(華盛頓在由卡達資助其後勤的區域中擁有一個大型軍事基地)以換取「卡達政治角色的自由」。

卡達試圖加深與埃及反對派——穆斯林兄弟會1——的聯繫,來作為反抗的方案,這變成一種策略性的合作。在埃及第二任總統Nasser的統治下,穆斯林兄弟會逃離埃及並在海灣國家中取得了優勢地位,他們在沙烏地阿拉伯發展了教育課程並建立海灣區域的教育與健康機構。與其合作是很自然的,不過卡達做的不只如此,更與其主導的重要人物例如Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi等人進行政治合作。

阿拉伯聯合大公國(UAE)過去對於政治角色沒有太大興趣,即便成為中東區域的經濟中心和財富集散地,阿聯也從不扮演主要的政治角色。不過,在過去的6年中,區域與其地緣政治圖譜有所改變,而阿聯也因此在政治上變得至關重要。

這個變化與巴勒斯坦政治家、議會成員Mohammed Dahlan有關,在他否決了巴勒斯坦總統Mahmoud Abbas的國家計劃並指控其貪腐行為後,便遷至阿聯的阿布達比,Dahlan提出一項稱為「不受穆斯林兄弟會影響的中東」的政治方案,並成功地遊說阿聯的權力核心人物Mohammed bin Zayed接受這個方案。阿聯時期的Dahlan為沙烏地阿拉伯等國陣營未來要提出的阿拉伯政治方案埋下了種子。

敵對陣營與媒體爭奪戰

過去的20年間,卡達創造了龐大的媒體與制度版圖,使它與美國聯繫起來並且在中東區域與國際間扮演關鍵的角色,像是杜哈宗教對話中心(Doha Center for Interfaith Dialogue)、美國穆斯林對話會議(Muslim-American Dialogue Conference)、薩班中東政策中心(Saban Center for Middle East Policy),以及許多其他企業,和大型媒體工具,當中又以知名的「半島電視台」(Al Jazeera Media Network)所經營的媒體網絡為主。不僅如此,卡達還對教育機構進行大量投資,吸引以政治學為專長的國際大學在卡達建立分校,建置阿拉伯研究中心與政策研究,這些機構對於阿拉伯世界的學者、研究者和多數的研究生產者造成重大影響。

在1995到2015的幾年間,卡達將自我標榜為「政治伊斯蘭」,並與土耳其和蘇丹的伊斯蘭主義者密切互動、並且與在突尼西亞發生的人民革命站在同一陣線。這也是半島電視台在對所有阿拉伯世界的反對運動建立政治支持網絡後,所想要經營的方向——透過人們熟知的電視螢幕來達成。卡達將自身跟阿拉伯之春連結,使她與伊斯蘭主義者崛起的命運相連、共同分享好與壞。這也確實發生了。2011年,卡達的希望隨著阿拉伯之春和所伴隨的希望而升起,然而這些希望很快地隨著在埃及、葉門、突尼西亞和利比亞等地革命運動的失敗,而成為泡影,卡達也共同承受了這些失敗的惡果。

過去的兩個月內,沙烏地阿拉伯與阿聯透過他們的媒體工具對卡達進行猛烈攻擊,根據巴林外交部的發言,這是為了阻止卡達以「煽動媒體」來支持伊朗。巴林是一個以什葉派教徒為多數、卻被遜尼派家族所統治的國家,她指控伊朗從2011年開始介入其內部事務,並煽動其人民反對統治者。2014年,這三個國家便召回了她們在卡達首都杜哈的外交大使,要求卡達停止支持伊斯蘭團體——特別是穆斯林兄弟會。

出人意料地,美國總統川普日前宣布「海灣國家說他們會與資助極端主義者的國家劃清界線,而所有的證據都指向卡達」,又在推特上提到:「或許這就是終結恐怖主義夢魘的起點!」即便美國在卡達擁有中東地區最大的軍事基地,有大約一萬名美國士兵和美軍指揮官辦公室,也避免不了前美國前國防部長、前中情局局長Robert Gates召集一次針對卡達與穆斯林兄弟會之間的關係的討論,並提到如果卡達持續支持穆斯林兄弟會,就會失去在其境內的美國軍隊。在這個討論會上,共和黨外交委員會主席Ed Royce表示2,如果杜哈不改變其作法的話,議會已經準備好將卡達境內的美軍撤離到中東區域的其他國家。

此刻,在各陣營間出現的和諧與共識展現了它們想要與阿拉伯和許多國際派系——齊心協力圍攻卡達、其盟友如穆斯林兄弟會,還有哈瑪斯——的意圖。自從川普造訪阿聯之後,產生的巨大轉變是,阿聯可以說服新任美國政府,卡達支持恐怖主義以及世界最激進的武力團體,包含哈瑪斯、努斯拉陣線和其他團體。好幾個禮拜以來,媒體不斷釋放卡達的負面消息,兩週前美國政府告訴卡達,他們必須將哈瑪斯驅逐出杜哈並且停止支持穆斯林兄弟會的活動。卡達為此告知哈瑪斯現在區域正在變化而沒人能夠保護你,在其提議下,哈瑪斯得試圖提出一個新的務實的方案。

6月9日,位於南加薩走廊的巴勒斯坦民眾上街示威聲援卡達。(攝影:Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/Reuters)

Understanding the Qatar diplomatic crisis

The Qatar diplomatic crisis is certainly not the product of the current phase, but of many years. The relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar have been unsettled for years, and their relations reached to a border fighting that killed two Qatari soldiers and a Saudi officer in 1992. In 1994, Qatar stood against Saudi Arabia in the war in Yemen, where Qatar supported the demands of secession of the south Yemen. In 1995, Qatar also opposed the appointment of Saudi Arabia as secretary-general of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), forcing Qatar to leave the conference room, threatening to boycott the council's sessions altogether. Qatar's relations with neighboring Bahrain also have always been beset by the conflict over Hawar Islands, which have plunged the two countries into a conflict that could have triggered a war in 1986 but Saudi intervention prevented that war. Qatar and Bahrain did not enjoy full diplomatic relations until 1997.

Saudi Arabia and Egypt sought within intelligence cooperation in 1994 and 1996 to support a double coup not against the new Emir "Hamad" (the father of current Emir) but also against the ruling family "Al Thani" by supporting a tribal alliance loyal to Saudi Arabia.But in the final hours before the coup d'état, it was revealed by an officer. Qatar immediately summoned The US, which had a simple air base to monitor the no-fly zone in Iraq, and held a security pact with Washington under which Washington owns a large military base in the region that Qatar finances its logistics in exchange for "Freedom of the political role for Qatar".

Qatar has sought to strengthen its links with the opponents of the Egyptian authority, such as the Muslim Brotherhood, as a form of resistance. This became a kind of strategic cooperation. The Muslim Brotherhood since they fled Egypt under Nasser's role has a good position in the Gulf states. They developed the educational curricula in Saudi Arabia and established the educational structures in the Gulf and the health structures. It was natural to cooperate with them, but Qatar went beyond cooperation in these specialized fields to a kind of Political cooperation where Qatar hosted important people like Sheikh Yusuf al-Qaradawi and many.

The UAE was not interested in being a political player as much as it was to be the central axis of the Middle East economy and the place of the wealthy gathering in the Middle East without a major political role. Over the past six years, the region and its geopolitical map have changed and the UAE has become very much interested in being a key player, politically and a hub for the Middle East.

With moving of the Palestinian politician and parliament member Mohammed Dahlan to Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates after bitter disagreements with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas over the Palestinian national program and accusations of corruption. Dahlan, has a political project "Middle East free of the Muslim Brotherhood" he persuaded the powerful man of the UAE Mohammed bin Zayed to adopt this project, which happened. Dahlan's presence in the UAE is the seed of an Arab political project that includes the UAE, Egypt and later Saudi Arabia.

Over the past two decades, Qatar has built a huge media and institutional empire that links it with the Americans as a key player and engine in the Middle East and internationally. Such as Doha Center for Interfaith Dialogue, the Muslim-American Dialogue Conference, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, and dozens of other initiatives, as well as large media tools, especially the Al Jazeera Media Network. This is in addition to the huge Qatari investment in educational institutions and attracting international universities specializing in politics with branches in Qatar as well as the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, which has the first impact on Arab academics and researchers and the largest producer of research in the Arab world.

Qatar presented itself to the region and its people through a picture, which was during the years of "95-2015", and this picture emerged through which allied with "political Islam" and the close with the Islamists of Turkey and Sudan and allied with the popular revolutions that began in Tunisia and ended in Tunisia. It is also the picture that Al-Jazeera has built on the Qatari political support network of all the Arab opposition movements, through which the people have known through its screen.

Linking Qatari politics to Arab spring projects and the rise of Islamists in the region have led to a "temporary" twinning that make them to share gains and losses. This is precisely what happened. Qatar's shares rose in the Arab spring and the waves of hopes that reached the region in 2011, but these hopes soon evaporated with the decline of spring in Egypt, Yemen and Tunisia and its turmoil in Libya, Qatar also shared the decline and losses of the moment with its allies.

In the past two months, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, using their media tools, have launched a major attack on Qatar in an attempt, according to the Bahraini Foreign Ministry statement, to stop "media incitement" and support of Iranian groups in the region. Bahrain is a predominantly Shi'ite country governed by the Sunni royal family, which has accused Iran since 2011 of interfering in its internal affairs and inciting the Bahraini people against its rulers. This was not the first attempt by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain to move against Qatar. In 2014, the three countries withdrew their ambassadors from Doha, demanding that Qatar stop supporting Islamic groups especially Muslim Brotherhood.

But it did not stop there. In a surprise move, US President Donald Trump said: "They "the Gulf states" said they would take a hard line on funding extremism and all reference was pointing to Qatar," he added on Twitter. "Perhaps this will be the beginning of the end to the horror of terrorism!" Given that Qatar hosts the largest American base in the Middle East, which has about ten thousand soldiers from the US forces and the Office of the commander of US forces. That did not prevent Robert Gates, the former US secretary of defense and former CIA director, from declaring at a gathering to discuss the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar that Qatar risks losing the presence of US troops on its land if it continues to support the Muslim Brotherhood.

In the same rally, Ed Royce, chairman of the Republican Foreign Affairs Committee, said that Congress was ready to consider moving an important US military base in Qatar else­where in the Middle East if Doha did not change its ways.  This harmony and consensus among all parties in this time frame shows a great deal of concerted efforts among many Arab and international parties to besiege Qatar and those supported by Qatar such as the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.

What has strongly changed now after Trump's visit is the UAE's ability to convince the new US administration that Qatar supports terrorism and some of the world's most radical forces, including Hamas, the Nusra Front and others. For weeks, there have been media attacks on Qatar and two weeks ago the US administration sent Qatar a message that they must expel Hamas from Doha and stop supporting Muslim Brotherhood activity. Qatar informed Hamas that the region is changing and no one can protect you. There, Hamas tried to issue a new charter to be more pragmatic on the advice of Turkey and Qatar.

  • 1. 譯注:穆斯林兄弟會為一伊斯蘭人民運動團體,他們的信念是藉由伊斯蘭律法,並以「伊斯蘭作為解決方案」為基礎建立一種世界秩序(又稱哈里發)來擊潰西方自由主義。
  • 2. 譯注:在這場名為「美—沙關係的挑戰與機會」討論會中,Ed Royce清楚表明,並援用埃及、沙烏地阿拉伯、巴林以及阿聯指出的「恐怖份子」就是穆斯林兄弟會和哈瑪斯陣營,而美方相當「關切」這些組織與卡達的關係。
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責任主編: 

Hazem Almassry

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